NY'ers: We Like Mike and America Will Too

New Quinnipiac Poll released today and the headline number for our purposes is that only 34% of New Yorkers say they would Definitely or Probably vote Bloomberg for President. Not surprising, given that with a field of 20 potential Republican and Democratic candidates, everyone a compares Bloomberg to their favorite candidate - not all of whom will win the nomination. In effect, its Bloomberg v. The Field. Case in point, only 9% of Dems say that they would definitely vote for Bloomberg. Take Hillary or Obama out of the picture (since they can't both win the nomination) and watch Bloomberg's number climb.

The other headline number is Bloomberg enjoys a 73% approval rating. And tellingly, 55% of New Yorkers believe that Mike's "businessman's approach to government" would help him in a national campaign. The take-away here is that New Yorkers like Bloomberg's style and believe America will like him as a Presidential candidate.

Full disclosure: this blogger was surveyed as part of the Quinnipiac poll.

Time: Bloomberg Win "Isn't impossible"

Mark Halperin from Time plays with the Electoral College Calculator, and imagines a world in which Bloomberg wins outright, while opining that "It isn't impossible for Bloomberg to get enough votes to win."

Halperin raises, but punts, on the more interesting question and probable outcome, specifically: "On the other hand, if Bloomberg was able to pick off some electoral votes, he could theoretically throw the outcome into the House of Representatives, producing another set of complex what-ifs.

Unfortunately, Halperin does not show his math and reveal which states he thinks Bloomberg puts in play -- or how the House of Representatives might break.

He also fails to account for an electoral vote deal.

Bloomberg receives 18% in New Jersey Poll

In a three-way race between Hillary, Rudy and Mike, Quinnnipiac pollsters report that Clinton and Giuliani would receive 36% each and Mike would pick up 18 percent.

Not a bad start for an undeclared candidate.

Possible VP Candidates

What are the qualifications for Mike's ideal running mate? Here's a point system based on the assumption that Mike might want to balance out his weaknesses.

- Recognized foreign policy /military expert (+10 points)

- Political party: Long-standing Democrat (-3 points); Republican with ties to Bush (-10 points); Republican critic of the Bush administration (+5 points)

- Name recognition: Well-known by Time Magazine readership (+5 points)

- Religion: Non-Christian (-10 points)

- Geography: An extremely popular figure in a single large state (+10 points), Northeastener (-5 points)

- Beltway Insider: Has worked in D.C. since 2004 (-5 points)

Possibilies:

1. Gen. Colin Powell: 20 points, assuming he is credibly anti-Bush. Role in selling the Iraq war might be show-stopper; but he has apologized and says it is a blot on his record.

2. Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R-CA): 15 points, if he is popular in California. The fact that he might not be constitutionally eligible to serve, he may be able to appear on a ballot. And what could be more "outsider" than someone who has to sue to overturn a silly constitional amendment to serve his country?

3. Sen. Jim Webb (D-Va.). 15 points. 5 points for foreign policy and 10 if he can carry Virginia.

4. Gen. Wes Clark. 12.5 points, some name recognition from the People Magazine set.

5. Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.). 12 points. Would most likely have similar campaign themes regarding cleaning up Washington.

6. Sen. Chuck Hagel (R-NE). 5 points if he is recognized as a half of a foreign policy expert. He seems interested in the job.

Who else scores points?

Oddsmakers: Bloomberg 18-1 longshot

Only three bookmakers are laying odds on Bloomberg winning in 2008. They are all over the map at 40-1, 25-1, and 18-1.

Zogby: Mike Can Win

Noted pollster John Zogby runs the numbers and has this money quote:

"On the electoral map, a Bloomberg candidacy puts almost every state into play. Suddenly, the required winning percentage in each is reduced from 50% plus one to just 34%."

NYTimes: Bloomberg As Kingmaker

Patrick Healy in the NYTimes today proposes the two state strategy (and suggests the same four states we did), but reverses the deal so that Bloomberg allocates his electors to one of the large party candidates. There is also talk that the deal could be memorialized in a binding contract (backed by a "hefty cash bond") to ensure that certain policy initiatives or cabinet appointments are carried out. This seems highly unlikely.